Monthly
$49/month
Billed monthly · 14-day free trial
- Daily Logic Defensive signal
- Posted at 4:16 PM ET
- Trade after hours in minutes, even by phone
- Easy to cancel
One free trial per person. If you've had one before, billing starts right away.
Equity-like returns, bond-like risk
Logic Defensive
The rules-based ETF portfolio I trade with my own money for the part of my savings I can't afford to see fall hard. It holds an S&P 500 ETF (SPY or VOO) and follows simple rules to step aside into a Treasury bill ETF (SGOV or BOXX) when the trend turns down, aiming for returns close to the S&P 500 with much smaller drops along the way.
- Annual return (CAGR)
- +12.09%
- Max drawdown
- −18.90%
- Sharpe ratio
- 0.88
- Total return
- +860%
S&P 500 +10.99%
S&P 500 −55.25%
S&P 500 0.41
S&P 500 +689%
The idea
Why Smaller Drops Matter
Logic Defensive has one job: lose less than the S&P 500 in the bad years, while keeping up, or coming close, in the good ones.
A big drop takes years to recover from, because the gain you need to get back is always bigger than the loss. A 20% drop needs a 25% gain to break even, and a 50% drop needs a 100% gain.
When you are taking money out
In retirement, or any account you draw from, a deep drop hurts twice: you sell shares while prices are low to cover your withdrawals, so there is less money left to recover with. This is often called sequence-of-returns risk.
That's the part of my own money I use this portfolio for. It can also suit anyone who simply doesn't like watching their balance fall a lot.
The gain you need to get back to where you were
| If your account drops | It needs to gain | If you also take out 5% a year |
|---|---|---|
| −10% | +11.1% | +17.6% |
| −20% | +25.0% | +33.3% |
| −30% | +42.9% | +53.8% |
| −40% | +66.7% | +81.8% |
| −50% | +100.0% | +122.2% |
The last column assumes you withdraw 5% of the starting balance during the drop year, so the account shrinks further and the climb back is steeper.
How far below its high, month by month*
Each bar is the deepest point that month below the previous all-time high, measured from daily closes. Shorter bars are better. Click a name to show or hide it.
Simple rules
How It Works
- 1
S&P 500 or T-bills
I hold an S&P 500 ETF (SPY or VOO), or a Treasury bill ETF (SGOV or BOXX) when the trend turns down. No stock picking, no charts to read.
- 2
Few trades
Trades happen only when the rules say so, a few times a month at most.
- 3
Signal at 4:16 PM ET
Posted every trading day, 15 minutes after the close. I place my own trades after hours, within minutes of posting.
- 4
After hours, in minutes
Every trade is placed in the after-hours session, never during market hours. Your brokerage app on your phone is all you need.
Who it fits
A medium- to long-term horizon and a low to medium risk tolerance: retirement savings, an account you draw from, or money you'd rather not see drop sharply.
Risk Low – Medium
Want more growth, and fine with bigger swings?
Logic Defensive is my cautious portfolio. For money with a longer horizon, I also run Logic Core and Logic Max: higher returns, deeper drops. They're on my other site, overallmoney.com, with a separate subscription.
Real account
My Live Results
I started trading Logic Defensive with my own money in Jan 2026. These are my actual results, next to what the simulation and the S&P 500 did over the same period.
Since Jan 2026 · as of Nov 4, 2026
My account+4.50%
Simulation+4.57%
S&P 500+13.37%
My account is 0.07 percentage points behind the simulation so far. Some gap is expected, and it can go either way.
- The simulation trades at each day's closing price; I trade after hours, a few minutes after the 4:16 PM ET signal, at that moment's price.
- The price I actually get can be slightly better or worse than the one I see when I place the order.
- I show every period, good or bad, so you can judge the gap yourself.
| Year | My account | Simulation | S&P 500 | vs simulation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026YTD | +4.50% | +4.57% | +13.37% | −0.07% |
Real brokerage account, percentages only, after commissions and before taxes.
Performance
Year by Year
Every year and every month since 2007, next to the S&P 500 with dividends reinvested and a classic 60/40 portfolio (AOR).
Yearly returns*
2026 is year to date.
Monthly returns*
Losing months are shown in red.
| Year | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Logic Defensive | S&P 500 | 60/40 (AOR) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026YTD | 1.96% | 1.30% | −6.03% | 3.75% | 4.68% | −2.85% | 1.56% | 0.10% | −0.21% | −0.80% | 1.47% | – | +4.57% | +13.37% | +5.94% |
| 2025 | 3.53% | 0.44% | −3.06% | 0.38% | 6.56% | 4.94% | 2.77% | 2.41% | 3.22% | 4.33% | −2.15% | 1.56% | +27.44% | +17.88% | +13.42% |
| 2024 | 1.39% | 3.57% | 3.71% | 0.20% | 3.40% | 0.69% | 0.09% | 5.38% | 2.14% | −0.82% | 0.92% | −2.18% | +19.83% | +25.02% | +7.76% |
| 2023 | 4.14% | −0.73% | 6.01% | 2.72% | 2.09% | 1.22% | 1.86% | −3.25% | −3.55% | −2.22% | 6.88% | 2.77% | +18.77% | +26.29% | +12.79% |
| 2022 | −4.03% | −0.99% | 0.43% | −1.09% | 0.00% | 1.90% | 3.52% | 0.47% | 0.00% | 0.98% | 0.56% | −3.76% | −2.24% | −18.11% | −17.38% |
| 2021 | 0.33% | 6.84% | 6.76% | 6.94% | 2.08% | 2.60% | 0.67% | 2.74% | −4.97% | 3.40% | −1.28% | 7.13% | +37.78% | +28.71% | +9.35% |
| 2020 | −0.41% | 0.96% | 0.00% | 10.30% | 1.04% | 1.75% | 6.97% | 2.19% | −4.10% | 4.74% | 3.00% | 3.29% | +33.19% | +18.40% | +9.11% |
| 2019 | 0.00% | 1.46% | 2.35% | 1.94% | −3.54% | 3.36% | 2.71% | 0.75% | 1.37% | 3.25% | 2.96% | 2.05% | +20.12% | +31.49% | +15.81% |
| 2018 | 3.19% | −6.19% | −1.23% | 3.51% | 3.28% | 0.13% | 4.73% | 0.36% | −0.33% | −7.44% | 0.00% | 0.00% | −0.76% | −4.38% | −8.04% |
| 2017 | 0.78% | 1.53% | −0.96% | 0.18% | 1.52% | 0.89% | 0.64% | 1.15% | 0.58% | 0.83% | 2.36% | 1.05% | +11.06% | +21.83% | +10.69% |
| 2016 | 0.00% | 3.10% | 6.87% | 1.81% | 1.13% | 5.31% | 1.52% | 0.86% | 2.26% | −0.14% | −1.82% | 0.69% | +23.50% | +11.96% | +4.37% |
| 2015 | −1.24% | 3.80% | −1.30% | 1.28% | 1.56% | −2.07% | 3.72% | −2.98% | −2.91% | 3.28% | 0.99% | −1.33% | +2.48% | +1.38% | −3.09% |
| 2014 | 0.91% | 1.79% | 1.52% | −0.32% | 1.84% | 0.25% | −0.96% | 2.00% | −1.26% | 0.33% | 0.04% | −3.17% | +2.89% | +13.69% | +4.21% |
| 2013 | 0.49% | 0.48% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 0.17% | −0.82% | 1.62% | −1.86% | 0.72% | 3.90% | 3.94% | 0.97% | +14.87% | +32.39% | +13.34% |
| 2012 | 5.22% | 4.34% | 2.94% | 0.64% | −5.46% | 3.03% | −0.98% | 1.14% | 0.54% | −2.67% | 2.43% | 1.43% | +12.81% | +16.01% | +9.09% |
| 2011 | 2.92% | 1.71% | −1.34% | 1.10% | −1.99% | 2.15% | −2.44% | 0.00% | −3.27% | 6.58% | 1.90% | −1.98% | +5.02% | +2.11% | −1.27% |
| 2010 | −2.23% | 5.30% | 2.76% | 2.25% | −11.87% | −2.30% | −0.51% | 2.26% | 4.38% | 0.00% | −1.87% | 1.14% | −1.82% | +15.06% | +8.98% |
| 2009 | −1.74% | 0.00% | 10.04% | 18.44% | 0.85% | 0.05% | −2.01% | 3.91% | 4.16% | −4.39% | 3.30% | −0.14% | +35.16% | +26.46% | +16.37% |
| 2008 | 0.00% | −4.60% | −1.27% | −2.08% | 0.09% | 0.00% | 0.00% | −0.08% | −0.62% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.10% | −8.25% | −37.00% | +7.62% |
| 2007 | 2.09% | 0.70% | 0.77% | 1.03% | 3.47% | −1.61% | −1.20% | 0.00% | −0.06% | 2.25% | −7.06% | −1.17% | −1.18% | +5.49% | 0.00% |
*Simulated performance: the strategy's rules applied to historical data, not actual trades; live trading since 2026. Before taxes, commissions and subscription fees. Logic Defensive figures leave out dividends, while S&P 500 figures include reinvested dividends (S&P 500 Total Return), so the comparison is stricter on Logic Defensive. AOR started in November 2008, so its 2007–2008 figures cover only the months it existed. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
14-day free trial
Plans
Every Logic Defensive signal, every trading day. Try the monthly plan free for 14 days.
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Yearly
$499/year
$41.58/month, billed yearly · No free trial
- Daily Logic Defensive signal
- Posted at 4:16 PM ET
- Trade after hours in minutes, even by phone
- Easy to cancel
Yearly costs 15% less than 12 monthly payments, so it's non-refundable.
Want to try first? Start with the free monthly trial and switch to yearly anytime; your unused month is credited.
How the free trial works (monthly plan)
- TodayFull access to the signal. $0 today.
- Before day 14You get a reminder email. Cancel in one click and pay nothing.
- Day 14Your plan starts and the first payment is taken.
Monthly payments aren't refundable once your trial ends; if something went wrong, message me and I'll look at it case by case. Cancelling stops the next renewal, and you keep access until the end of the period you paid for. Any approved refund may exclude card processing fees.
FAQ
Questions
Subscribing, payments and how the signal works.
Still have a question? Send me a message
Is this investment advice?
No. Logic Defensive is the set of rules I follow with my own money, and I share the signal it gives. I'm not a licensed financial adviser and I don't know your situation. Decide for yourself whether it fits you, or ask a licensed professional.
What forms of payment do you accept?
All major credit and debit cards, plus Apple Pay and Google Pay, through Stripe's secure checkout. Your card details go to Stripe, never to this site.
Can I cancel my subscription?
Yes, easily. The monthly plan starts with a 14-day free trial (one per person): cancel before it ends and you pay nothing. You'll get a reminder email before it ends.
Monthly payments aren't refundable once your trial ends. If something went wrong, message me through the Contact page and I'll look at it case by case. Yearly plans have no free trial and cost 15% less than 12 monthly payments, so they're non-refundable.
Cancelling stops the next renewal, and you keep access until the end of the period you paid for.
Do you trade before subscribers see the signal?
No. The signal is posted at 4:16 PM ET, and I place my own trades after that, usually within minutes, in the same after-hours session you can use.
When are the trades placed?
Always after hours, never during regular market hours. Every trade follows the 4:16 PM ET signal (1:16 PM on early-close days) and is placed in the after-hours session. Your brokerage account needs extended-hours trading turned on, and most brokers only accept limit orders after hours.
Can I use it in a retirement account?
Usually yes, as long as your account lets you buy and sell ETFs (most IRAs and 401(k) brokerage windows do). Check your plan's trading rules and any limits on frequent trading before you start.
Will my price go up?
No. The price you sign up at stays the same for as long as you keep your subscription.
*Simulated performance: the strategy's rules applied to historical data, not actual trades; live trading since 2026. Before taxes, commissions and subscription fees. Logic Defensive figures leave out dividends, while S&P 500 figures include reinvested dividends (S&P 500 Total Return), so the comparison is stricter on Logic Defensive. AOR started in November 2008, so its 2007–2008 figures cover only the months it existed. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Not investment advice: I share what I do with my own money. See the Disclaimer and Terms of Service.